ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

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Tuesday, October 20, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?

Moved down 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-12.025%Confirmed move
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?

Moved down 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-11.050%Confirmed move
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+5.073%Confirmed move
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-2.057%Confirmed move
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-4.079%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will this market reach 50 unique traders by October 26, 2026?

Moved up 27.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+27.147%Likely noise
Onion futures unbanned before 2028?

Moved down 36.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-36.214%Likely noise
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?

Moved down 3.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-3.536%Likely noise

Widest venue disagreement

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

gap 1.0 pts
Polymarket14%Kalshi14%

Settled (18 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.