ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

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Wednesday, October 21, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Moved up 6.7 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+6.711%Confirmed move
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?

Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-4.020%Confirmed move
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?

Moved up 6.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+6.564%Confirmed move
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?

Moved down 7.2 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-7.236%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.089%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 21?

Moved up 58.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+58.596%Likely noise
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 21?

Moved up 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+10.022%Likely noise
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?

Moved down 30.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-30.53%Likely noise

Widest venue disagreement

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

gap 0.1 pts
Polymarket0%Kalshi1%

Settled (17 in 24h)

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