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Thursday, October 22, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 16.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 26.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 21.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Widest venue disagreement
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
gap 0.3 ptsSettled (11 in 24h)
- Will Tesla report a GAAP operating margin below 2% for a second straight quarter in Q3 2026?Manifoldno
- Will bluelinfish1 reach Celestial before lunetteb reaches Saint?Manifoldyes
- Will Zvi write a full report on Muse Wonder?Manifoldno
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will the price of the SK Hynix stock collapse by at least 50% from the ATH by 2028?Manifoldyes
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Trump's approval rating hit 36.4% or lower by the end of 2027 on Silver Bulletin?Manifoldyes
- Will Calvin Wang show up to 21W.023 on time?Manifoldno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.