Daily archive · times in ET · all days
Friday, October 23, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 8.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 52.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 21.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 15.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Widest venue disagreement
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
gap 1.0 ptsSettled (17 in 24h)
- Will someone prove Empty in bend2 within 48 hours of its launch?Manifoldno
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Last Week Tonight with John Oliver be renewed for a 14th season?Manifoldyes
- Will Ukraine strike Russia sovereign land before December?Manifoldyes
- Will Tesla's Q3 2026 automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits come in at 17.0% or higher?Manifoldyes
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?Polymarketyes
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?Polymarketno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.