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Saturday, October 24, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 40.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 14.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 18.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 4.7 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 45.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 31.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 5.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Widest venue disagreement
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
gap 1.0 ptsSettled (23 in 24h)
- Will an alleged male lover of Lindsey Graham come forward to the MSM at any time during the remainder of 2026?Manifoldyes
- Will JerryRigEveryting be able to bend the iPhone Duo in half with his bare hands?Manifoldno
- Will AOC endorse or appear at a campaign event for Troy Jackson?Manifoldyes
- Kevin Acton wins in Vernon-Lumby MLA 2026?Manifoldno
- Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?Polymarketno
- 🔮🌊 Will America get MORE WOKE in 2026? 🏳️⚧️✨Manifoldno
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Polymarketyes
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?Polymarketyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.