Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
372 mana
Total volume
647.8 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will AOC endorse or appear at a campaign event for Troy Jackson?
As of Oct 17, 2026, 3:08 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 95.8% (up from 53.1% 24 hours earlier). It had 372 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
95.8%
+42.7 percentage points
over 24 hours53.1% → 95.8%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (34.3 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
MediumWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no threshold or deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
62%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
8
Trades
28
over 90 days
Largest order
250 mana
637.7 mana traded across these 28 trades (last 90 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$637.7 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves no if Troy Jackson isn’t 2026 Democratic nominee for senate in Maine Resolves no if Aoc doesn’t appear at an event or endorse Troy Resolves yes if Aoc endorses Troy or appears at a campaign event for him, or both Saying ‘I support the Democratic nominee’ doesn’t count as endorsement, must be endorsement of his campaign specifically
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves no if Troy Jackson isn’t 2026 Democratic nominee for senate in Maine Resolves no if Aoc doesn’t appear at an event or endorse Troy Resolves yes if Aoc endorses Troy or appears at a campaign event for him, or both Saying ‘I support the Democratic nominee’ doesn’t count as endorsement, must be endorsement of his campaign specifically
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 42.7 percentage points over the last 24 hours (53.1% → 95.8%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 17, 3:18 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±29 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 34.3 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
- Flow one-directional across 8 participants (broad, not a single order)
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
3Low
Where the price path tends to go next603 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+34.324H+42.77D+42.7
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