PolymarketGeopoliticsDevelopingUpdated 6m ago

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

As of Oct 23, 2026, 8:11 AM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 99.7% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $36K traded in the past 24 hours, $76.4K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 0.3 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
99.7%
Little changed over 24 hours

Thin market where small orders can move the price, with broad trading across many accounts.

Price historyPolymarket

Source: Polymarket price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

ThinTight spread

Order-book liquidity

$76.4K

Bid-ask spread

0.3 pts

24h volume

$36K

Total volume

$92.1K

Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

Broad participation
27%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

53

Trades

200

over 19h

Largest order

$4K

$27.4K traded across these 200 trades (last 19h).

Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.

Recent trade activity$27.4K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 23, 8:17 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Probability by deadline

The same event, priced across deadline contracts on this venue.

Extending the deadline from Oct 31 to Dec 31 adds about 0.9 percentage points of implied probability.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±14 pts.

Quote-drivenLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Quote-driven

A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.

  • Tight spread on a liquid, calm market

The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
45Medium
Where the price path tends to go next1493 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting98%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~18h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H+0.124H+0.17D+0.1

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