PolymarketGeopoliticsLikely noiseUpdated 5m ago

Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?

As of Oct 19, 2026, 1:19 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 78.0% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $91.6K traded in the past 24 hours, $4.9K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 7.9 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.

Market probability
78.0%
Little changed over 24 hours
Moving fastBig move, weak backingResolving soon

Thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.

Price historyPolymarket

Source: Polymarket price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Weak

Consensus stability

Unsettled

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

ThinLoosely priced

Order-book liquidity

$4.9K

Bid-ask spread

7.9 pts

24h volume

$91.6K

Total volume

$0

Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

A few accounts
47%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

61

Trades

200

over 1h

Largest order

$4.5K

$50.1K traded across these 200 trades (last 1h).

A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.

Recent trade activity$50.1K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a curfew is officially announced in any part of Paris, Marseille, Lyon, Toulouse, Nice, Nantes, Montpellier, Strasbourg, Bordeaux, or Lille, France between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a curfew is officially announced in any part of Paris, Marseille, Lyon, Toulouse, Nice, Nantes, Montpellier, Strasbourg, Bordeaux, or Lille, France between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The listed cities refer to the municipalities (communes) of those names, within their official municipal boundaries. Curfews applying only to other municipalities, including suburbs or neighboring municipalities within the same metropolitan area, will not qualify. A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in a listed city, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A qualifying curfew may be citywide or limited to specific arrondissements, districts, or neighborhoods of a listed city, and must be officially declared by the relevant municipality, the relevant prefecture (including the Paris Police Prefecture), or a French national authority. A broader curfew (e.g. department-wide or nationwide) will qualify so long as it applies to at least part of a listed city. Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups, and conditional or prospective statements that a curfew may be imposed will not qualify. Orders restricting demonstrations or gatherings, closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not qualify unless they also impose a curfew as defined above. Any qualifying curfew which is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris local time will count regardless of if or when it goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesOctober 24, 2026 at 5:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 19, 1:24 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±35 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

  • Probability moved 20.3 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next50 observed
  • Thin-liquidity spike73%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting13%
  • Trend continuation6%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityLow· half-life <1h
PredictabilityHigh irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H-20.36H-0.124H-0.17D-0.1

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