Will Ye / Kanye West perform in St. Petersburg on both 10 and 11 October 2026, as planned?
Source: Manifold price history
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 3.3%.
- Final market price
- 3.3%
- Event deadline
- October 11, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Ye / Kanye West perform in St. Petersburg on both 10 and 11 October 2026, as planned? The final Manifold price was 3.3%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 3.3%.
- Market data as of
- October 11, 2026 at 5:25 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 11, 2026 at 5:29 PM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- October 11, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 4m ago
What this market actually measures
This market resolves to YES if Ye (Kanye West) performs live concerts in St. Petersburg, Russia, on both October 10, 2026, and October 11, 2026, as scheduled.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves to YES if Ye (Kanye West) performs live concerts in St. Petersburg, Russia, on both October 10, 2026, and October 11, 2026, as scheduled. It resolves NO otherwise. Clarifications: A qualifying "live concert" requires Ye to be physically present on stage and performing his music. If either of the scheduled shows is canceled, postponed to a date outside of the October 10–11, 2026 window, or if Ye fails to perform on both of these consecutive nights for any reason, this market will resolve to NO. If one concert occurs but the other is canceled, cut short before starting, or postponed, this market resolves to NO.
Market data
24h volume
0 mana
Liquidity
1K mana
Total volume
8.2K mana
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 3.3%
- Resolves
- Oct 11, 2026