"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.5 billion worldwide?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.1%.
- Final market price
- 99.1%
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 99.1%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 99.1%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.5 billion worldwide? The final Manifold price was 99.1%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.1%.
- Market data as of
- October 11, 2026 at 12:34 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 11, 2026 at 5:29 PM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 5h ago
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if "Spider Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.5 billion worldwide during its initial theatrical run, and NO otherwise. The resolution source will be BoxOfficeMojo.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if "Spider Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.5 billion worldwide during its initial theatrical run, and NO otherwise. The resolution source will be BoxOfficeMojo. I may resolve early if it becomes overwhelmingly clear that BND is not grossing enough anymore to pass the threshold.
Market data
24h volume
0 mana
Liquidity
1K mana
Total volume
21.2K mana
- Category
- Other
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 99.1%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026