Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 4:21 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 78.5% (down from 80.5% 24 hours earlier). It had $51.1K traded in the past 24 hours, $98.9K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as strong.
Confirmed repricing; the market is settling at the new level.
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
StrongThe pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
FormingMovement has slowed (2 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at ht…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 1, 4:34 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±16 pts.
What's happening
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 55% of recent flow
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Stable consensus94%
- Choppy / mean-reverting3%
- Trend continuation2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$51.1K
Liquidity
$98.9K
Total volume
$0
- Category
- Crypto
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 1.0 pts
- Best bid
- 78.0%
- Best ask
- 79.0%
- 7-day range
- 76.0% – 80.5%
- Resolves
- Nov 1, 2026