Will the CAQ win any seats in the 2026 Quebec election?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 1.0%.
- Final market price
- 1.0%
- Event deadline
- October 5, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will the CAQ win any seats in the 2026 Quebec election? The final Manifold price was 1.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 1.0%.
- Market data as of
- October 6, 2026 at 1:53 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 6, 2026 at 2:03 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- October 5, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 10m ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) wins at least one seat in the 2026 Quebec provincial election. Resolution will be determined based on the official final results published by Élections Québec or a consensus of credible media outlets.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) wins at least one seat in the 2026 Quebec provincial election. Resolution will be determined based on the official final results published by Élections Québec or a consensus of credible media outlets. As resolution is unlikely to be ambiguous, I may trade in this market.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ2.1K
Liquidity
Ṁ200
Total volume
Ṁ2.3K
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 1.0%
- Resolves
- Oct 5, 2026