ProbCastOdds Reliability
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in September?73%▲27.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September?100%▲15.5Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?45%▼29.0Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?56%▲29.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 18?69%▲46.2Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?39%▲16.0Bitcoin Up or Down on September 18?96%▲8.9Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?20%▼19.0Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?5%▼19.0Opus 5.2 released in September?46%▲22.8Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?87%▲16.0Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?78%▲3.0Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?61%▲13.3Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?12%▼15.0SpaceX closes at $150.00 or higher on Friday 18 September 2026?88%▲40.6Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?48%▼5.0

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Friday, September 18, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in September?

Moved up 27.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+27.073%Confirmed move
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.078%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-5.048%Confirmed move
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Moved up 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+6.052%Confirmed move
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.018%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 18?

Moved up 46.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+46.269%Likely noise
SpaceX closes at $150.00 or higher on Friday 18 September 2026?

Moved up 40.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+40.688%Likely noise
US Average Gas Price Is $4.5500 or more on September 21 2026?

Moved down 13.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-13.619%Likely noise

Settled (30 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.