ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

Daily archive · times in ET · all days

Friday, September 18, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.074%Confirmed move
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?

Moved up 48.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+48.076%Confirmed move
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?

Moved up 31.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+31.046%Confirmed move
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Moved up 3.7 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.724%Confirmed move
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September?

Moved up 16.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+16.0100%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Anthropic IPO in October?

Moved down 55.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-55.43%Likely noise
US Average Gas Price Is $4.5000 or more on September 21 2026?

Moved down 41.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-41.029%Likely noise
Ethereum price at Sep 19, 2026 at 12am EDT?

Moved up 15.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+15.049%Likely noise

Settled (59 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.