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Saturday, September 19, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 36.4 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 2.4 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 46.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 53.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 83.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (19 in 24h)
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?Polymarketyes
- Random resolver 🎲Manifoldno
- Will I do something *crazy* during Nash Pit Episode 4?Manifoldyes
- Will I resolve this market less than an hour late?Manifoldno
- Will İmisli FK defeat Sabah FK ?Manifoldno
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 19?Polymarketyes
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 19?Polymarketyes
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 19?Polymarketyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.