ProbCastOdds Reliability
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?44%▲27.5Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?77%▲44.5Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in September?75%▲50.0Bitcoin Up or Down on September 19?85%▲13.0Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?5%▼48.4Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 September 14-20?54%▼9.3Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?34%▼17.5Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?51%▼9.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?56%▲5.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 19?98%▲4.5Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 19?8%▼0.3Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?13%▲8.8Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?11%▲3.9Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?7%▲2.9Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?9%▼16.0Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?93%▼0.5

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Saturday, September 19, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.074%Confirmed move
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?

Moved up 48.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+48.576%Confirmed move
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?

Moved up 31.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+31.046%Confirmed move
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+4.024%Confirmed move
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September?

Moved up 15.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+15.5100%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Anthropic IPO in October?

Moved down 55.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-55.43%Likely noise
US Average Gas Price Is $4.5500 or more on September 21 2026?

Moved down 51.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-51.18%Likely noise
US Average Gas Price Is $4.5000 or more on September 21 2026?

Moved down 41.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-41.029%Likely noise

Settled (59 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.