ProbCastOdds Reliability
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?45%▼14.5Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?41%▲7.0Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?36%▼8.5Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?72%▲4.0Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?64%▼13.5Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?81%▲5.0Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?52%▲12.3Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 September 14-20?7%▼47.4Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September?94%▲12.5Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?65%▼5.5Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?35%▲8.3US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?97%▲5.2Opus 5.2 released in September?25%▼2.1Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?34%▼17.0Will The Odyssey gross more than Spider-Man: Brand New Day at the domestic box office this weekend (Sept 18–20)?4%▼83.5Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?96%▲3.7

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Sunday, September 20, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?

Moved down 8.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-8.536%Confirmed move
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?

Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+5.073%Confirmed move
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+5.081%Confirmed move
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Moved down 3.6 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.617%Confirmed move
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+0.548%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 September 14-20?

Moved down 46.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-46.08%Likely noise
Will The Odyssey gross more than Spider-Man: Brand New Day at the domestic box office this weekend (Sept 18–20)?

Moved down 83.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-83.54%Likely noise
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

Moved up 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+12.053%Likely noise

Settled (20 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.