ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

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Sunday, September 20, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Moved up 18.9 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+18.999%Confirmed move
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?

Moved up 24.6 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+24.694%Confirmed move
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Moved up 16.1 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+16.161%Confirmed move
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Moved up 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+6.082%Confirmed move
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.020%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 September 14-20?

Moved down 61.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-61.10%Likely noise
Will Trump, any of his cabinet, or any official government account mention aella by name in a tweet by January 1 2028?

Moved down 14.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-14.141%Likely noise
Will @manifoldpolitics create 5 or more markets in October 2026

Moved down 19.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-19.231%Likely noise

Settled (9 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.