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Monday, September 21, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 26.4 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 19.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 2.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 6.3 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 30.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 31.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 27.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (13 in 24h)
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will I avoid media and distracting apps before 1 p.m. every day next week? (Ṁ10 Bonus)Manifoldyes
- Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom next week? (Ṁ10 Bonus)Manifoldyes
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 September 14-20?Polymarketno
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 September 14-20?Polymarketno
- Will Trump have a national address this week and call certain aspects of the AI race an imminent threat to humanity?Manifoldno
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 September 14-20?Polymarketyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.