Will I do something *crazy* during Nash Pit Episode 4?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 67.9%.
- Final market price
- 67.9%
- Event deadline
- September 22, 2026 at 11:30 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 67.9%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will I do something *crazy* during Nash Pit Episode 4? The final Manifold price was 67.9%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 67.9%.
- Market data as of
- September 19, 2026 at 9:19 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- November 3, 2026 at 5:59 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- September 22, 2026 at 11:30 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 44d ago
What this market actually measures
After the episode, @Quroe will be tagged in comments and asked how crazy whatever I did was on a scale of 1-100. Resolves to that %.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
After the episode, @Quroe will be tagged in comments and asked how crazy whatever I did was on a scale of 1-100. Resolves to that %.