ProbCastOdds Reliability
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?66%▲19.5Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in September?56%▲10.0Bitcoin Up or Down on September 17?82%▲5.0Opus 5.2 released in September?28%▲14.5Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?25%▼21.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?72%▲4.5Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?45%▲8.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?55%▼7.0Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?63%▼5.0Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?11%▲5.9Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 17?7%▼1.0Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?20%▼8.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?81%▲6.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?11%▼11.2US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on September 21 2026?93%▲15.9Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?8%▲2.7

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Thursday, September 17, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?

Moved up 19.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+19.566%Confirmed move
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

Moved up 4.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+4.572%Confirmed move
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Moved up 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+8.045%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-7.055%Confirmed move
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?

Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-8.020%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in October 2026?

Moved up 21.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+21.036%Likely noise
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in November 2026?

Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+0.528%Likely noise
Is Union Alpha a router?

Moved up 44.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+44.294%Likely noise

Settled (42 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.