ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

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Thursday, September 17, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Little 24h change — the price looks settled and reliable.

-0.236%Confirmed move
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-2.043%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-5.050%Confirmed move
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+5.051%Confirmed move
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.09%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Ethereum price at Sep 18, 2026 at 12am EDT?

Moved up 23.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+23.040%Likely noise
Ethereum price at Sep 18, 2026 at 12am EDT?

Moved down 12.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-12.52%Likely noise
US Average Gas Price Is $4.5000 or more on September 21 2026?

Moved up 30.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+30.870%Likely noise

Settled (28 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.