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Wednesday, September 16, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 13.2 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 2.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 19.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 22.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 42.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (56 in 24h)
- Ethereum price at Sep 16, 2026 at 1am EDT?Kalshino
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?Polymarketyes
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on September 15?Polymarketno
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on September 15?Polymarketno
- Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on September 15?Polymarketno
- Will a Portion or All of Going-To-The-Sun Rd Close Again This Week?Manifoldno
- Will there be a confirmed case of Cyclosporiasis in ALL 48 US contiguous states before the end of August 2026?Manifoldno
- OpenAI is sued over Navier-Stokes?Manifoldno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.