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Wednesday, September 16, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 19.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 32.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 44.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 17.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (49 in 24h)
- 9月16号总统Trump会死吗Manifoldno
- Will the Chase Freedom Flex's 5x categories for Q4 2026 include Groceries AND Dining?Manifoldyes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Polymarketyes
- Daily CoinflipManifoldno
- S&P500 closes at $7600.00 or higher on Wednesday 16 sep 2026?Manifoldno
- Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?Polymarketno
- Fed rate hike in 2026?Polymarketyes
- Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Polymarketyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.