Odds Reliability

⌘K

Checking…

Daily archive · times in ET · all days

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Moved down 15.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-15.55%Confirmed move

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in September?

Moved down 25.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-25.046%Confirmed move

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?

Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+4.048%Confirmed move

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-2.016%Confirmed move

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?

Moved down 3.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.823%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will 0x876611867717dE6b6dff30da5CeF9feB620eE1ea REACH more than 100.00 USDC Base by September 21th 11:59 pm UTC

Moved up 53.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+53.669%Likely noise

Will the address for math.eg.rego.re have a balance of more than $25 before Sep 23?

Moved up 32.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+32.080%Likely noise

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in November 2026?

Moved up 44.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+44.068%Likely noise

Settled (49 in 24h)

Will a Portion or All of Going-To-The-Sun Rd Close Again This Week?Manifoldno
Will there be a confirmed case of Cyclosporiasis in ALL 48 US contiguous states before the end of August 2026?Manifoldno
OpenAI is sued over Navier-Stokes?Manifoldno
Is Mike Rogers a COWARD? (Michigan senate)Manifoldyes
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Polymarketyes
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on September 15?Polymarketno
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026?Polymarketno
Will Real Madrid defeat Elche ?Manifoldyes

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.