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Tuesday, September 15, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 13.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 61.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 62.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 62.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (26 in 24h)
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 14?Polymarketyes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will 0x53a125F03c90B8E07BA50356B312F4b7b9bA47A7 REACH again more than 267.8431 USDC Base by September 14th 11:59 pm UTCManifoldno
- Will Quroe's brother join Manifold before October 2026?Manifoldyes
- Will The Odyssey gross more than Spider-Man: Brand New Day at the domestic box office this weekend (Sept 11–13)?Manifoldno
- Will Man United defeat Man City?Manifoldno
- Will Real Sociedad defeat Atletico Madrid?Manifoldno
- Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-2.5)Polymarketno
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