ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

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Monday, September 14, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Moved down 14.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-14.020%Confirmed move
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?

Moved up 5.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+5.566%Confirmed move
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-4.014%Confirmed move
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?

Moved down 2.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-2.877%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-8.013%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?

Moved up 29.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+29.045%Likely noise
Opus 5.2 released in September?

Moved up 12.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+12.923%Likely noise
Ethereum price at Sep 15, 2026 at 12am EDT?

Moved up 34.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+34.553%Likely noise

Settled (31 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.