ProbCastOdds Reliability
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?31%▲7.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?79%▲23.5Bitcoin Up or Down on September 14?89%▲17.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 14?50%▲7.0Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?5%▼2.9Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?19%▼2.0Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?52%▼16.6Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 14?99%▲29.0Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?28%▲1.0Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?28%▲5.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?27%▼10.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 14?98%▲3.5Will 0x53a125F03c90B8E07BA50356B312F4b7b9bA47A7 REACH again more than 267.8431 USDC Base by September 14th 11:59 pm UTC36%▲20.0Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?59%▲4.0Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?96%▲9.4Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?2%▲0.7

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Monday, September 14, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?

Moved up 24.2 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+24.279%Confirmed move
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Moved up 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+7.031%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-2.019%Confirmed move
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in September?

Moved up 1.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+1.576%Confirmed move
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in September?

Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+0.56%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 14?

Moved up 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+12.053%Likely noise
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 14?

Moved up 19.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+19.091%Likely noise
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 14?

Moved up 29.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+29.099%Likely noise

Settled (36 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.