ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

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Sunday, September 13, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+9.032%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-1.020%Confirmed move
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.053%Confirmed move
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in September?

Moved up 1.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+1.88%Confirmed move
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Moved up 1.6 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+1.695%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 14?

Moved up 26.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+26.036%Likely noise
Will 0x53a125F03c90B8E07BA50356B312F4b7b9bA47A7 REACH again more than 267.8431 USDC Base by September 14th 11:59 pm UTC

Moved up 48.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+48.052%Likely noise
Will Eliezer approve of Yuddish?

Moved down 26.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-26.632%Likely noise

Settled (29 in 24h)

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