ProbCastOdds Reliability
All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?4%▼46.0Will 0x53a125F03c90B8E07BA50356B312F4b7b9bA47A7 REACH again more than 267.8431 USDC Base by September 14th 11:59 pm UTC16%▲15.4Will AI solve another Millennium Prize Problem (besides Navier–Stokes) before September 15, 2027?32%▼44.5Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?9%▲3.4Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?69%▼6.7Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?24%▲3.0Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?5%▼4.1Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?13%▲3.6Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 13?3%▼5.0Will there be a player better than Messi?26%▲21.1Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?59%▼8.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?19%▼1.0Will the problem with Ceuta (an Spanish city) and Morocco resolves before 2027?30%▲5.8Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?20%▼1.0Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?50%▲2.3Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?16%▼4.0

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Sunday, September 13, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Moved up 3.6 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.613%Confirmed move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-1.019%Confirmed move
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?

Moved up 2.7 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+2.78%Confirmed move
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.024%Confirmed move
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Moved down 3.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.85%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?

Moved down 46.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-46.04%Likely noise
Will 0x53a125F03c90B8E07BA50356B312F4b7b9bA47A7 REACH again more than 267.8431 USDC Base by September 14th 11:59 pm UTC

Moved up 11.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+11.816%Likely noise
Will AI solve another Millennium Prize Problem (besides Navier–Stokes) before September 15, 2027?

Moved down 42.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-42.432%Likely noise

Settled (20 in 24h)

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