Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
122.9 mana
Total volume
2.9K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Eliezer approve of Yuddish?
As of Oct 29, 2026, 5:48 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 35.2% (up from 30.2% 24 hours earlier). It had 122.9 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
35.2%
+5 percentage points
over 24 hours30.2% → 35.2%
Big move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — and today's move was spread across many accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (4 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
30%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
26
Trades
48
over 46 days
Largest order
500 mana
2.9K mana traded across these 48 trades (last 46 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$2.9K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
The Yuddish Language: yuddish.com This is quite possibly the nerdiest thing I've ever done (which is saying a lot, as a founder of this site), but I've created a new conlang that is an homage to both Eliezer Yudkowsky and Yiddish. In Yuddish, you have to indicate your credence in bits of log odds, your evidential basis for assertions (whether it's direct empirics, armchair reasoning, or third hand reports), and disti…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
The Yuddish Language: yuddish.com This is quite possibly the nerdiest thing I've ever done (which is saying a lot, as a founder of this site), but I've created a new conlang that is an homage to both Eliezer Yudkowsky and Yiddish. In Yuddish, you have to indicate your credence in bits of log odds, your evidential basis for assertions (whether it's direct empirics, armchair reasoning, or third hand reports), and distinguish clearly between propositional and non-propositional speech acts (wishes, questions, commands, suppositions). And do it all with Yiddish vocabulary. דאָס ליכט עף⁺⁶=זען ברענען. Dos likht ef⁺⁶=zen brenen. “The light is on, +6 bits (64:1), on perceptual evidence.” This market resolves YES iff Yudkowsky says something at least vaguely affirming of Yuddish before the end of 2026.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 5.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (30.2% → 35.2%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 3:51 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 29, 6:02 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±24 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 4.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
18Low
Where the price path tends to go next489 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~11h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+4.024H+5.07D+5.0
Related markets
Will Arizona pass the Anti-Trans Prop 318 ballot measure in 2026?
87%YESTrust 38
Manifold452.4 mana 24h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
97%YESTrust 89
Polymarket$65.1K 24h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
0%YESTrust 91
Polymarket$190.3K 24h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
0%YESTrust 97
Polymarket$287.1K 24h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
25%YESTrust 72
Polymarket$462.6K 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
2%YESTrust 89
Polymarket$194.9K 24h