ProbCastOdds Reliability
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?21%▼18.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?79%▲17.0Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?79%▲19.0Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in September?54%▲5.5Fed rate hike in 2026?89%▲10.0Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?21%▲3.0Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?48%▼5.8Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?79%▲1.0Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?50%▲5.0Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?73%▼10.0Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?67%▲11.0Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?20%▼6.1Bitcoin Up or Down on September 12?7%▼4.0Will an AI do Magic before EOY 2027? [See description]28%▼21.4Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?21%▼19.0Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?81%▲20.0

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Saturday, September 12, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 18.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-18.021%Confirmed move
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 17.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+17.079%Confirmed move
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Moved up 19.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+19.079%Confirmed move
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.021%Confirmed move
Fed rate hike in 2026?

Moved up 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+10.089%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Ethereum price at Sep 12, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Moved up 18.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+18.568%Likely noise
Ethereum price at Sep 12, 2026 at 5am EDT?

Moved down 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-12.020%Likely noise
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in September 2026?

Moved up 18.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+18.572%Likely noise

Settled (90 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.