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Saturday, September 12, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 3.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Little 24h change — the price looks settled and reliable.
Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 14.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 0.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 47.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (26 in 24h)
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?Polymarketno
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)Polymarketyes
- Will Sunderland defeat Arsenal?Manifoldno
- Will this market get any comments before it closes?Manifoldyes
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 12?Polymarketyes
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 12?Polymarketyes
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 12?Polymarketyes
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 12?Polymarketyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.