Will Sunderland defeat Arsenal?
The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Last probability before deadline
- 25.5%
- Event deadline
- September 12, 2026 at 2:20 PM ET
- Venue status
- closed
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Sunderland defeat Arsenal? The last traded Manifold probability before the deadline was 25.5%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Market data as of
- September 12, 2026 at 2:25 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 12, 2026 at 3:06 PM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- September 12, 2026 at 2:20 PM ET
- Market status
- Awaiting resolution
- Data updated
- 41m ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Sunderland AFC defeats Arsenal FC in their English Premier League match scheduled for September 12, 2026. This market resolves to NO if Arsenal defeats Sunderland, or if the match ends in a draw.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Sunderland AFC defeats Arsenal FC in their English Premier League match scheduled for September 12, 2026. This market resolves to NO if Arsenal defeats Sunderland, or if the match ends in a draw. Resolution will be based on the official final score reported by the Official Premier League Website. If the match is postponed, suspended, or abandoned and not fully completed within 7 days of the scheduled kickoff time (by September 19, 2026, 20:00 BST), this market will resolve to N/A. Background Sunderland hosts reigning Premier League champions Arsenal at the Stadium of Light for Matchweek 4 of the 2026/27 Premier League season. Arsenal enters the match in dominant form, having won all three of their opening Premier League matches as well as a midweek Champions League fixture against Napoli. Sunderland, managed by Régis Le Bris, starts the weekend with a 1-1-1 league record after a historic 2025/26 campaign in which they finished 7th and qualified for the UEFA Europa League. Arsenal has historically dominated this fixture, remaining unbeaten in their last 14 competitive meetings against Sunderland dating back to 2012. However, Sunderland managed to secure a 2-2 draw in this exact home fixture last season. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ70.8
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ70.8
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 25.5%
- Resolves
- Sep 12, 2026