ProbCastOdds Reliability
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?66%▲39.2Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?41%▼11.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?20%▼11.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?21%▲7.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?39%▼7.0Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?69%▲33.6US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?40%▲6.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 11?84%▲14.8Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?62%▲7.0Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?0%▼13.9Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?55%▲8.3Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?10%▼8.0Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?83%▲2.0Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?91%▲6.0Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?62%▲8.0Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?30%▲4.5

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Friday, September 11, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?

Moved up 38.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+38.066%Confirmed move
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Moved down 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-11.041%Confirmed move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Moved up 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+7.021%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-7.039%Confirmed move
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+7.062%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?

Moved down 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-10.08%Likely noise
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?

Moved up 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+7.092%Likely noise
Will an AI do Magic before EOY 2027? [See description]

Moved up 15.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+15.147%Likely noise

Settled (42 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.