Odds Reliability

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Friday, September 11, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 17.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-17.021%Confirmed move

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 17.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+17.079%Confirmed move

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Moved up 16.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+16.079%Confirmed move

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Moved down 15.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-15.073%Confirmed move

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+9.088%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Is Digger (2026) a musical?

Moved down 26.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-26.712%Likely noise

Will my this market post cross 1M Mana mark? (THIS ONE)

Moved down 66.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-66.014%Likely noise

Will open models be able to solve Navier Stokes by the end of 2028 for under $1000 in compute?

Moved up 51.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+51.881%Likely noise

Settled (83 in 24h)

Will the S&P 500 close above 7,720 on Friday?Manifoldno
Will the recorded US measles cases reach or exceed 3,500 cases in today's update?Manifoldno
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?Polymarketno
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?Polymarketyes
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 11?Polymarketyes
Will Grok 4.7 be released on 9/11?Manifoldno
Do you like 18% odds?Manifoldyes
Ethereum price at Sep 11, 2026 at 3pm EDT?Kalshino

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.