ProbCastOdds Reliability
LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?76%▲50.0LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?24%▲13.5LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?89%▲41.9Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?55%▲11.0Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in September?91%▲0.2Bitcoin Up or Down on September 10?28%▼7.0Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?10%▲5.2Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?20%▲9.8Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?55%▼10.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?45%▼2.0Will Trump give American adults $5000 each if the republicans win the midterms11%▼27.7Will YES have fewer holders than NO? (24hr quick fuse)18%▲1.1Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?20%▼10.4Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 10?5%▼2.0Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?21%▲2.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 10?55%▲2.0

Daily archive · times in ET · all days

Thursday, September 10, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Moved up 45.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+45.071%Confirmed move
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Moved up 10.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+10.521%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-2.045%Confirmed move
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+2.014%Confirmed move
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+2.055%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Bitcoin Up or Down on September 10?

Moved down 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-11.025%Likely noise
Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?

Moved down 10.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-10.420%Likely noise
Ethereum price at Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Moved up 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+12.019%Likely noise

Settled (59 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.