ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

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Thursday, September 10, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+8.062%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-8.038%Confirmed move
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Moved up 5.7 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+5.752%Confirmed move
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-5.047%Confirmed move
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+9.063%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?

Moved up 54.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+54.285%Likely noise
Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?

Moved up 52.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+52.376%Likely noise
Ethereum price at Sep 11, 2026 at 12am EDT?

Moved down 17.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-17.03%Likely noise

Settled (44 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.