ProbCastOdds Reliability
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?7%▼4.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?19%▼5.0Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?33%▲12.5All Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?19%▼24.5Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in September?75%▲7.0Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?83%▼8.5Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?63%▲4.0Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?16%▲6.3All Millennium Prize Problems solved before May 2027?11%▼8.8Will bitcoin go below 9.000$ at the end of this month?6%▼44.1Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?74%▲5.0OpenAI is sued over Navier-Stokes?11%▲1.9Will Anthropic announce a claimed solution to Navier–Stokes before the end of 2026?2%▼41.8Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?86%▼0.5Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?58%▲5.1Will OpenAI discover a room temp superconductor in 2026?6%▼10.3

Daily archive · times in ET · all days

Wednesday, September 9, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+5.074%Confirmed move
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

Little 24h change — the price looks settled and reliable.

0.014%Confirmed move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Little 24h change — the price looks settled and reliable.

-0.357%Confirmed move
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+1.072%Confirmed move
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Moved up 3.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.546%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

All Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?

Moved down 24.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-24.519%Likely noise
Will bitcoin go below 9.000$ at the end of this month?

Moved down 44.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-44.16%Likely noise
9984 reaches 7000 by Sep 10?

Moved up 24.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+24.261%Likely noise

Settled (81 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.