ProbCastOdds Reliability
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?97%▲17.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 8?69%▼22.0Netanyahu out by end of 2026?48%▼3.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?48%▼4.0Did OpenAI just solve navier stokes??72%▼8.6Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?39%▼9.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?87%▲25.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?14%▼2.0Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026?80%▲4.0Will California elect a Republican governor in 2026?12%▼22.5Will a new Smash Bros game be announced in the Nintendo Direct on 9/8?14%▼27.2Will YES have more holders than NO? (24h quick fuse)91%▲33.1Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?16%▼1.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 8?3%▼2.2Will Anthropic announce a claimed solution to Navier–Stokes before the end of 2026?40%▲12.3Will Hunter Biden actually launch a meme coin on September 9, 2026?73%▲31.8

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Tuesday, September 8, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-4.048%Confirmed move
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

Moved up 4.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+4.565%Confirmed move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-2.014%Confirmed move
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-1.016%Confirmed move
Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+1.057%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will my this market post cross 200k Mana mark? (THIS ONE)

Moved up 49.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+49.099%Likely noise
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?

Moved up 27.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+27.089%Likely noise
Will YES have more holders than NO? (24h quick fuse)

Moved up 29.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+29.988%Likely noise

Settled (97 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.