ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

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Tuesday, September 8, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-1.047%Confirmed move
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?

Moved down 1.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-1.510%Confirmed move
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+2.053%Confirmed move
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+5.074%Confirmed move
LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-2.026%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Ethereum price at Sep 9, 2026 at 12am EDT?

Moved up 15.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+15.042%Likely noise
Will SSI have a "moment"?

Moved down 15.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-15.714%Likely noise
Ethereum price at Sep 9, 2026 at 12am EDT?

Moved up 14.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+14.049%Likely noise

Settled (92 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.

Prediction Markets Daily Read — Tuesday, September 8, 2026 | ProbCast