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Currently 36% YES, flat over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a watch-level move on mixed conditions (Trust 50/100).
Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±15 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Resolves based on CDC Cyclosporiasis surveillance page. Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis page reports at least one confirmed cyclosporiasis case (domestically acquired) in all 48 contiguous U.S. states (excluding Alaska and Hawaii) during the 2026 surveillance season, on or before August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. If even one of the 48 contiguous states has zero confirmed cases on the CDC’s official surveillance map or reporting tables by this deadline, the market will resolve to NO. Additional Resolution Details: Reporting Delays: Because CDC updates can lag behind actual onset dates, the market creator will wait until September 15, 2026, to allow the CDC to post surveillance data covering the period up to August 31, 2026. Data Sources: Resolution will be determined using the official state-by-state surveillance map or data tables provided on the CDC's dedicated page. If the CDC website becomes permanently inaccessible or ceases updating this specific surveillance map, equivalent aggregated data from state health departments published by reputable health news outlets (such as CIDRAP or the Marler Blog) will be used to verify case distribution. Background As of July 2026, the CDC and state health departments are tracking a significant multistate outbreak of cyclosporiasis, with hundreds of confirmed cases already documented across at least 31 states. This description was generated by AI. Reviewed by Sapphire828
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
LOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketDepth of the order book and volume
Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk: clear source, threshold, and deadline leave little room for ambiguity.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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