Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
StrongThe pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for September 2026, currently scheduled for September 15-16. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for September 2026, currently scheduled for September 15-16. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no September meeting takes place by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
What could move this market next?
- The scheduled event takes placeOctober 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 5, 1:47 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±8 pts.
What's happening
Liquid, two-sided, and calm. The current price reads as settled consensus — the latest print is a reasonable summary of what the market believes.
- Liquid, two-sided, and calm — price behaving as settled consensus
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Stable consensus96%
- Choppy / mean-reverting2%
- News repricing1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$53.3K
Liquidity
$207K
Total volume
$467K
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 0.1 pts
- Best bid
- 0.3%
- Best ask
- 0.4%
- 7-day range
- 0.4% – 0.4%
- Resolves
- Oct 7, 2026