Will Iran officially unveil a new Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor by September 18, 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 4.5%.
- Final market price
- 4.5%
- Event deadline
- September 17, 2026 at 4:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Iran officially unveil a new Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor by September 18, 2026? The final Manifold price was 4.5%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 4.5%.
- Market data as of
- September 20, 2026 at 4:28 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- November 2, 2026 at 9:16 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- September 17, 2026 at 4:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 43d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution Criteria This market resolves YES if, by September 18, 2026 at 23:59 UTC, the Iranian government or an authorized Iranian state body publicly unveils a new specific shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, providing sufficiently concrete routing or operational details for it to constitute more than a statement of intent. A qualifying announcement may come from the Iranian government, Supreme Nationa…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution Criteria This market resolves YES if, by September 18, 2026 at 23:59 UTC, the Iranian government or an authorized Iranian state body publicly unveils a new specific shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, providing sufficiently concrete routing or operational details for it to constitute more than a statement of intent. A qualifying announcement may come from the Iranian government, Supreme National Security Council, an authorized maritime or ports authority, or another official state body. Statements merely saying that Iran plans, intends, or expects to announce a new corridor do not qualify. Publication of an official map, defined route, coordinates, operational rules, or another clear description of the new corridor qualifies as YES. The market resolves NO if no such official announcement has occurred by the deadline. The market intentionally closes several days before the resolution deadline, preserving a genuine forecasting window and reducing the chance that traders can act on route details or official information already beginning to emerge.