Odds Reliability

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Friday, September 4, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

Moved up 59.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+59.070%Confirmed move

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+10.052%Confirmed move

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Moved up 15.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+15.534%Confirmed move

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+2.088%Confirmed move

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-10.049%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will Donald Trump order a new U.S. attack on Iran by the end of 2026?

Moved down 40.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-40.225%Likely noise

Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026?

Moved down 29.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-29.529%Likely noise

Will John Fetterman resign from the United States Senate?

Moved down 28.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-28.324%Likely noise

Settled (116 in 24h)

Ethereum price at Sep 4, 2026 at 11pm EDT?Kalshino
Astra available to OpenAI Plus users before September 7th?Manifoldyes
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Polymarketyes
Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?Polymarketyes
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 4?Polymarketno
Will Openai Release a new Luna Model alongside the next Frontier ModelManifoldno
Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026Manifoldyes
Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?Polymarketyes

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.