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PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 4m ago

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 4?

Last traded probability
0.4%
-7.1 pts
past 24h
Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
0.4%
Event deadline
September 4, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET
Venue status
open
Resolution source
wsj.com

ProbCast Reliability Summary

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 4? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 0.4%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
September 4, 2026 at 3:59 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 4, 2026 at 4:03 PM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
September 4, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET
Market status
Awaiting resolution
Data updated
4m ago

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Friday, September 4, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Friday, September 4, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on th…

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Friday, September 4, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Friday, September 4, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Resolution source: wsj.com

Market data

24h volume

$86.6K

Liquidity

$1.3K

Total volume

$86.6K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
Spread
0.0 pts
Best bid
0.4%
Best ask
0.9%
7-day range
0.4% – 7.7%
Resolves
Sep 4, 2026
Resolution
wsj.com

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