As of Oct 24, 2026, 3:13 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 29.3% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 100 mana of pool liquidity.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — the venue's feed doesn't report liquidity for this market, traded by a small group of accounts.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
0 mana
Total volume
230.7 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
8
Trades
24
over 8 days
Largest order
50 mana
220.3 mana traded across these 24 trades (last 8 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if John Fetterman formally resigns from his seat in the United States Senate at any point before his current term ends on January 3, 2029. The market will resolve to NO if: He completes his current Senate term without resigning.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if John Fetterman formally resigns from his seat in the United States Senate at any point before his current term ends on January 3, 2029. The market will resolve to NO if: He completes his current Senate term without resigning. He leaves office before the end of his term due to death, permanent incapacitation, or expulsion by the Senate, without having submitted a formal resignation. A public announcement of a future resignation date will trigger a YES resolution as long as the effective date of the resignation is set to occur before January 3, 2029. Verification will be based on official statements from John Fetterman or his office, official postings on the U.S. Senate website, or reporting from major, credible news organizations (such as the Associated Press or Reuters). Background John Fetterman was elected as the junior U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania in November 2022, and his term began on January 3, 2023. In September 2026, The Wall Street Journal published a critical report alleging that Fetterman has shown minimal interest in the day-to-day responsibilities of his office, including skipping committee hearings, avoiding constituent meetings, and experiencing high staff turnover. The report sparked immediate criticism from local and national Democrats, with some figures—such as former Representative Conor Lamb—publicly calling on Fetterman to resign. Fetterman has also faced highly publicized health challenges since suffering a stroke during his 2022 campaign. He has not indicated any plans to resign from his position. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 24, 4:57 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.