New gemini version out in june
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 13.8%.
- Final market price
- 13.8%
- Event deadline
- June 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
New gemini version out in june The final Manifold price was 13.8%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 13.8%.
- Market data as of
- July 5, 2026 at 11:09 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 5, 2026 at 1:01 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- June 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 61d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Google officially releases Gemini 3.5 Pro (or a higher-tier Gemini model, such as Gemini 3.5 Ultra or Gemini 4.x) for public general availability (GA) or public developer preview between June 1, 2026, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Google officially releases Gemini 3.5 Pro (or a higher-tier Gemini model, such as Gemini 3.5 Ultra or Gemini 4.x) for public general availability (GA) or public developer preview between June 1, 2026, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO. For the purposes of this market: "Officially releases" means the model is made accessible to developers via the Gemini API, Google AI Studio, Vertex AI, or to consumers via the Gemini App/Web interface, and is officially announced by Google (such as on the Google Developers Blog or the Gemini API Release Notes). Only new distinct model versions count (e.g., Gemini 3.5 Pro or higher). Minor API parameter updates, feature additions to existing models (such as Gemini 3.5 Flash), or the deprecation/sunset of older models do not qualify. Background During the Google I/O keynote on May 19, 2026, Google launched Gemini 3.5 Flash and showcased upcoming updates to its model lineup. Google CEO Sundar Pichai announced during the event that the next frontier model, Gemini 3.5 Pro, is slated for release in June 2026. Gemini 3.5 Pro is expected to introduce a 2-million-token context window alongside Google’s advanced "Deep Think" reasoning mode, which will initially be available through premium subscriptions and enterprise API pathways. This market tracks whether Google meets its June rollout timeline for this flagship upgrade. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ7
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ558.9
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 13.8%
- Resolves
- Jun 30, 2026