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ManifoldAI / TechUpdated 61d ago

New gemini version out in june

Final price
13.8%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved NO

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 13.8%.

Final market price
13.8%
Event deadline
June 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

New gemini version out in june The final Manifold price was 13.8%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 13.8%.

Market data as of
July 5, 2026 at 11:09 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:01 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
June 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
61d ago

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Google officially releases Gemini 3.5 Pro (or a higher-tier Gemini model, such as Gemini 3.5 Ultra or Gemini 4.x) for public general availability (GA) or public developer preview between June 1, 2026, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Google officially releases Gemini 3.5 Pro (or a higher-tier Gemini model, such as Gemini 3.5 Ultra or Gemini 4.x) for public general availability (GA) or public developer preview between June 1, 2026, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO. For the purposes of this market: "Officially releases" means the model is made accessible to developers via the Gemini API, Google AI Studio, Vertex AI, or to consumers via the Gemini App/Web interface, and is officially announced by Google (such as on the Google Developers Blog or the Gemini API Release Notes). Only new distinct model versions count (e.g., Gemini 3.5 Pro or higher). Minor API parameter updates, feature additions to existing models (such as Gemini 3.5 Flash), or the deprecation/sunset of older models do not qualify. Background During the Google I/O keynote on May 19, 2026, Google launched Gemini 3.5 Flash and showcased upcoming updates to its model lineup. Google CEO Sundar Pichai announced during the event that the next frontier model, Gemini 3.5 Pro, is slated for release in June 2026. Gemini 3.5 Pro is expected to introduce a 2-million-token context window alongside Google’s advanced "Deep Think" reasoning mode, which will initially be available through premium subscriptions and enterprise API pathways. This market tracks whether Google meets its June rollout timeline for this flagship upgrade. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ7

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ558.9

Category
AI / Tech
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
13.8%
Resolves
Jun 30, 2026

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