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Tuesday, August 25, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Moved up 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+10.040%Confirmed move

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Moved up 5.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+5.513%Confirmed move

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

Moved up 13.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+13.059%Confirmed move

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?

Moved up 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+8.090%Confirmed move

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?

Moved up 9.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+9.583%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will Darline Graham get 60.00% or more in the SC Senate primary Runoff?

Moved down 19.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-19.21%Likely noise

Will bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?

Moved up 21.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+21.195%Likely noise

Will Trump rename Lake Ontario "Lake America"?

Moved down 55.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-55.325%Likely noise

Settled (35 in 24h)

How close is oViewybear to running T5 Kuudra?Manifoldyes
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Polymarketno
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Polymarketyes
Is this free mana?Manifoldyes
Ethereum price at Aug 25, 2026 at 11pm EDT?Kalshino
Will Darline Graham get 60.00% or more in the SC Senate primary Runoff?Manifoldno
Ethereum price at Aug 25, 2026 at 10pm EDT?Kalshino
Can I fold an intermediate origami dragon by 6pmManifoldyes

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.