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Home/Crypto/Will bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?
ManifoldCryptoUpdated 6m ago

Will bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?

Market probability
52.4%
+2.4 percentage points
over 24 hours50.0% → 52.4%
6 days until the event deadline
Deadline: August 28, 2026 at 2:37 AM ET

The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.

The pricing has weak support: thin trading volume.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: thin trading volume.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$5 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesAugust 28, 2026 at 2:37 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 21, 1:26 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Probability by deadline

The same event, priced across deadline contracts on this venue.

  • By Aug 2687.9%
  • By Aug 2692.0%
  • By Aug 28 (this market)52.4%

Extending the deadline from Aug 26 to Aug 28 removes about 39.6 percentage points of implied probability.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±28 pts.

One big traderLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

high classifier confidence
One big trader

Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ5

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ5

Category
Crypto
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+2.47D+2.4
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

0/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement19

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity37

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • One participant drove 100% of recent flow
  • Move not broadly confirmed (1 participants)

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
11Low
Where the price path tends to go next672 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~15h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Current probability
52.4%
7-day range
50.0% – 52.4%
Resolves
Aug 28, 2026

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

0/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+30
  • Price steadiness+24
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Expiring soon-10
  • Limited history-8
Trust score0 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Manifold

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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