Will Trump rename Lake Ontario "Lake America"?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Last probability before deadline
- 17.6%
- Event deadline
- August 26, 2026 at 5:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- closed
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Trump rename Lake Ontario "Lake America"? The last traded Manifold probability before the deadline was 17.6%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Market data as of
- August 26, 2026 at 6:03 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 11, 2026 at 5:35 PM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 26, 2026 at 5:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Awaiting resolution
- Data updated
- 46d ago
What this market actually measures
Will Trump rename Lake Ontario "Lake America"? Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, by the end of Donald Trump's second presidential term (scheduled for January 20, 2029), he signs an executive order, presidential proclamation, or other official presidential directive instructing U.S.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Will Trump rename Lake Ontario "Lake America"? Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, by the end of Donald Trump's second presidential term (scheduled for January 20, 2029), he signs an executive order, presidential proclamation, or other official presidential directive instructing U.S. federal agencies to rename or officially refer to "Lake Ontario" (or the U.S. portion of the lake) as "Lake America". This market resolves to NO if his presidential term ends without such an official directive being signed. Resolution Details & Sources: Only official executive actions published by the White House (such as on whitehouse.gov) or documented in the Federal Register will satisfy a YES resolution. Social media posts (e.g., on Truth Social), verbal statements, press conference remarks, or unofficial proposals will not suffice for a YES resolution unless followed by an official directive. If the officially designated name is a minor variation (such as "The American Lake" or "Lake of America"), the market will still resolve to YES. Background On August 25, 2026, amid an escalating trade dispute with Canada—including the imposition of 50% tariffs on Canadian auto and steel imports—President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. is giving "serious consideration to changing the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America". This follows a precedent set early in his second term: on January 20, 2025, Trump signed Executive Order 14172 ("Restoring Names That Honor American Greatness"), which directed federal agencies to refer to the Gulf of Mexico as the "Gulf of America" and Denali as "Mount McKinley". While the U.S. cannot unilaterally rename a bi-national body of water internationally, it can mandate nomenclature changes within U.S. federal agencies. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
Market data
24h volume
419.5 mana
Liquidity
100 mana
Total volume
685 mana
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 17.6%
- Resolves
- Aug 26, 2026