Is this free mana — 84.6% probability | ProbCast

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Home/Macro / Fed/Is this free mana?

ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 8m ago

Is this free mana?

Final price

84.6%

0.0 pts

past 24h

Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 84.6%.

Final market price: 84.6%
Event deadline: August 25, 2026 at 11:10 PM ET
Venue status: resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Is this free mana? The final Manifold price was 84.6%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 84.6%.

Market data as of: August 26, 2026 at 4:53 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated: August 26, 2026 at 5:01 AM ET
Source: Manifold
Event deadline: August 25, 2026 at 11:10 PM ET
Market status: Resolved
Data updated: 8m ago

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ638.8

Category: Macro / Fed
Venue: Manifold
Open interest: —
Current probability: 84.6%
Resolves

Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

0/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Liquidity

Insufficient data — this venue reports no volume or book depth for this market, so liquidity can't be measured (unknown, not necessarily poor).

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

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Aug 25, 2026

Trust breakdown

0/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

Liquidity anchor+29
Price steadiness+30
Missing market data-15
Thin liquidity-20
Past deadline-25
Limited history-8

Trust score0 / 100

How these scores work →

View on Manifold

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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