Will Darline Graham get 60.00% or more in the SC Senate primary Runoff?
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: thin trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: thin trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
FormingMovement has slowed (2 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
MediumModerate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 12, 5:29 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ5.8
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ5.8
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest