Can I fold an intermediate origami dragon by 6pm — 92.7% probability | ProbCast

ProbCastOdds Reliability

Today Top Movers Markets What Changed Accuracy Watchlist

⌘K

Checking…

Hot Markets

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?40%▲11.0 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?38%▲5.0 US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?17%▲10.0 US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?62%▲15.5 Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?39%▼18.8 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?6%▼26.0 US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?23%▲10.0 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?12%▲6.0 US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?82%▲8.0 Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?18%▼12.9 Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August?39%▲5.0 Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?21%▲1.5 US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?76%▲6.8 Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?75%▼3.1 Will Darline Graham get 60.00% or more in the SC Senate primary Runoff?7%▼12.1 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?28%▲1.0

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?40%▲11.0 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?38%▲5.0 US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?17%▲10.0 US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?62%▲15.5 Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?39%▼18.8 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?6%▼26.0 US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?23%▲10.0 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?12%▲6.0 US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?82%▲8.0 Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?18%▼12.9 Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August?39%▲5.0 Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?21%▲1.5 US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?76%▲6.8 Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?75%▼3.1 Will Darline Graham get 60.00% or more in the SC Senate primary Runoff?7%▼12.1 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?28%▲1.0

Home/Macro / Fed/Can I fold an intermediate origami dragon by 6pm

ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 9m ago

Can I fold an intermediate origami dragon by 6pm

Final price

92.7%

0.0 pts

past 24h

Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 92.7%.

Final market price: 92.7%
Event deadline: August 25, 2026 at 9:41 PM ET
Venue status: resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Can I fold an intermediate origami dragon by 6pm The final Manifold price was 92.7%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 92.7%.

Market data as of: August 25, 2026 at 9:59 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated: August 25, 2026 at 10:08 PM ET
Source: Manifold
Event deadline: August 25, 2026 at 9:41 PM ET
Market status: Resolved
Data updated: 9m ago

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ470.2

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ470.2

Category: Macro / Fed
Venue: Manifold
Open interest: —
Current probability: 92.7%

Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

15/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Liquidity54

Depth of the order book and volume

Related markets

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Polymarket$61.3K 24h

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Polymarket$381.8K 24h

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram

Today Top Movers Events All Markets What Changed Venue Divergence Polymarket vs Kalshi Methodology Coverage Meta's Arena Watchlist Terms of Use Privacy Crypto

Resolves

Aug 25, 2026

Trust breakdown

15/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

Liquidity anchor+38
Price steadiness+30
Thin liquidity-20
Past deadline-25
Limited history-8

Trust score15 / 100

How these scores work →

View on Manifold

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

Polymarket$417.2K 24h

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Polymarket$348.5K 24h

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Polymarket$433K 24h

Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $86.50 on August 27, 2026?

ManifoldṀ3.2K 24h

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]