Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?88%55.5Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?64%10.0Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?17%3.0Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?74%44.5Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?30%7.9Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 11?71%9.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?36%10.0Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?53%6.6Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?46%7.0Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?63%9.0Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?2%7.6Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?24%7.7Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?83%4.0Will Oracle report Q1 FY2027 revenue of at least $19.15 billion? (September 10, 2026 earnings)97%26.9Will the mail-in ballot restriction go into effect for the 2026 election?39%11.0Fed rate hike in 2026?79%5.0
PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 11m ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September?

Market probability
3.0%
Little changed over 24 hours
20 days until the event deadline
Deadline: September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.

The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Strong

The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$1.3K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of September 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of September 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Resolution source: pythdata.app

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

  • Confirmation at the resolution source (pythdata.app)

    The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 10, 8:53 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±14 pts.

Quote-drivenLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Quote-driven

A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.

  • Tight spread on a liquid, calm market

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
35Low
Where the price path tends to go next315 observed
  • Stable consensus94%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting2%
  • Trend continuation2%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~3h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$64.1K

Liquidity

$55.2K

Total volume

$155.7K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
Spread
0.8 pts
Best bid
2.6%
Best ask
3.4%
7-day range
2.2% – 3.0%
Resolves
Sep 30, 2026
Resolution
pythdata.app
Change (pts)1H-0.16H0.024H0.07D0.0

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