Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
1K mana
Total volume
5.7K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will the mail-in ballot restriction go into effect for the 2026 election?
As of Oct 28, 2026, 10:08 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 6.1% (down from 10.4% 24 hours earlier). It had 1K mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
6.1%
−4.3 percentage points
over 24 hours10.4% → 6.1%
Big move, weak backingResolving soon
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (4.3 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
37%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
23
Trades
38
over 48 days
Largest order
1.5K mana
5.6K mana traded across these 38 trades (last 48 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$5.6K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
The Trump administration is attempting to implement mail-in ballot restrictions for the 2026 midterms. These are widely considered to be illegal, and have received an injunction at the federal level.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
The Trump administration is attempting to implement mail-in ballot restrictions for the 2026 midterms. These are widely considered to be illegal, and have received an injunction at the federal level. Will the restrictions be implemented for the 2026 midterms? Resolves to YES if the United States Postal Service (USPS) actively implements the mail-in ballot restrictions outlined in its "Ballot Mail for Federal Elections" rule (implementing Executive Order 14399) for the November 2026 midterm elections. Resolves to NO otherwise.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 4.3 percentage points over the last 24 hours (10.4% → 6.1%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 28, 10:12 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±26 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 4.3 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
- Flow one-directional across 23 participants (broad, not a single order)
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
35Low
Where the price path tends to go next464 observed
- Illiquid / quiet97%
- Choppy / mean-reverting2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~27h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-4.324H-4.37D-4.3
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