Will Colorado Proposition 135 (prohibiting certain surgeries on minors) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Colorado Proposition 135 (Prohibit Certain Surgeries on Minors) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Simple majority of votes cast on the measure (statutory; SOS/Blue Book: 'Passes with a majority vote') Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Bans these surgeries on minors and bars government funds or insurance from paying (Blue Book). NO: Keeps current law protecting access and allowing insurance coverage (Blue Book). Results: resolves on the result certified by Colorado Secretary of State (official statewide canvass); takes effect on Governor's proclamation. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://leg.colorado.gov/ballots/prohibit-surgery-on-minors-in-response-to-perception-of-sex-or-gender-2/files/blue-book