Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?
As of Sep 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 62.7% (down from 64.4% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ302.2 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ10K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if the Democratic Party win the 2026 Maine United States Senate Election. This means the winning candidate appears on the ballot as the Democratic Party candidate.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if the Democratic Party win the 2026 Maine United States Senate Election. This means the winning candidate appears on the ballot as the Democratic Party candidate. 2026 United States Senate election in Maine - Wikipedia [link preview]
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 30, 9:12 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±15 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Choppy / mean-reverting87%
- Stable consensus5%
- Thin-liquidity spike3%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ302.2
Liquidity
Ṁ10K
Total volume
Ṁ38.7K
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 62.7%
- 7-day range
- 62.7% – 64.4%
- Resolves
- Nov 3, 2026