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PolymarketGeopoliticsUpdated 9m ago

Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

Last traded probability
0.1%
-0.2 pts
past 24h
Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
0.1%
Event deadline
September 12, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
Venue status
open

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 0.1%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
September 14, 2026 at 3:41 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 14, 2026 at 3:50 AM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
September 12, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
Market status
Awaiting resolution
Data updated
9m ago

What this market actually measures

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

Market data

24h volume

$63.2K

Liquidity

$36.5K

Total volume

$111.4K

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
Spread
0.0 pts
Best bid
0.1%
Best ask
0.1%
7-day range
0.1% – 0.3%
Resolves
Sep 12, 2026

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