Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 14?
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume, an unusually wide spread. The probability moved another 2 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume, an unusually wide spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
UnsettledThe probability moved another 2 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 12.2 percentage points over the last 24 hours (70.4% → 82.6%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 14, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 14, 4:34 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±35 pts.
What's happening
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 12.2 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Thin-liquidity spike70%
- Choppy / mean-reverting21%
- Stable consensus3%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$56.8K
Liquidity
$551.8
Total volume
$57.1K
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 6.6 pts
- Best bid
- 79.3%
- Best ask
- 85.9%
- 7-day range
- 70.4% – 94.2%
- Resolves
- Sep 14, 2026