Will Spirit Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?
Confirmed repricing, but the latest probability is still moving.
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread. The probability moved another 2 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
StrongThe pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
UnsettledThe probability moved another 2 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve according to the winner of BLAST Open Porto 2026, currently scheduled for August 26, 2026 to September 6, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name …
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of BLAST Open Porto 2026, currently scheduled for August 26, 2026 to September 6, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, BLAST; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
What could move this market next?
- The scheduled event takes placeOctober 6, 2026 at 4:13 AM ET
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 6, 4:15 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±14 pts.
What's happening
A sustained one-directional drift. This can be a genuine trend or crowd herding; watch whether liquidity and breadth confirm the move.
- Directional drift sustained across 1h / 6h / 24h windows
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Stable consensus97%
- Choppy / mean-reverting2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$54.1K
Liquidity
$183K
Total volume
$171K
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 1.0 pts
- Best bid
- 64.0%
- Best ask
- 65.0%
- 7-day range
- 64.5% – 66.5%
- Resolves
- Oct 6, 2026