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Home/Politics/Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?
PolymarketPoliticsUpdated 7m ago

Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?

Last traded probability
0.4%
-16.0 pts
past 24h
Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
0.4%
Event deadline
August 18, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Venue status
open

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 0.4%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
August 18, 2026 at 11:21 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
August 18, 2026 at 11:28 PM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
August 18, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Market status
Awaiting resolution
Data updated
7m ago

What this market actually measures

Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

0/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Liquidity79

Depth of the order book and volume

Related markets

Will James Fishback get second in the Florida Republican primary for governor?

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

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Market data

24h volume

$135.1K

Liquidity

$13.6K

Total volume

$239.6K

Category
Politics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.5 pts
Best bid
0.2%
Best ask
0.7%
7-day range
0.1% – 16.5%
Resolves
Aug 18, 2026

Trust breakdown

0/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

  • Liquidity anchor+55
  • Price steadiness+1
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Past deadline-25
  • Limited history-8
  • Big move, weak support-10
Trust score0 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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